For the Simms Team, January was a good month. There were more showings, more offers, more contracts – all of which we interpreted as a change and improvement in the market – particularly for single family homes and for properties under $1,500,000.

Statistics from the Pinellas Realtor Organization painted a very different picture, though.  The absorption rate (odds that a home will sell) for single family homes decreased to 4.2% and for condos to 2.8%  -  both lower than any time in the last three years.

For January the inventory of single family homes rose to 10,621 (an increase of 74% over January 2006) and number of sales declined to 448 (a decrease of 46.7% compared to January 2006) – which means we have a supply of 23.7 months, or nearly 2 years, in single family homes. The median price (half the properties below, half above)  has dropped 4.5% in a year to $210,000 but the mean or average price has increased 12.1% to $316,900. 

The January inventory of condos increased by 60% to 7,043 units and the number of sales dropped to 196, a 53% drop from January 2006. Based on January figures, we have a 35.9 month supply of condos on the market, nearly 3 years. Condo prices have continued to increase, as there are more and more new condos entering the market.  The median price rose 7.1% to $200,000 and the average or mean price rose 13.1% to $297,900. Keep in mind that prices on new condos on the Gulf and in downtown St. Pete often start above $1,000,000.

Remember that these figures, especially for condos, are skewed by new developments, since some of the inventory has not yet been built, and other built properties are not included in the Multiple Listing System.

Also remember that the figures include many small, older homes and condos. What little land is available for new construction (generally acquired by tearing down the old structures) is very expensive.

The Tampa Bay Builders Association reported the following statistics in their February 2007 newsletter (stats are comparing October 2006 to October 2005):

In Hillsborough County (Tampa) the average price of a new single family home rose 12% from $334,449 to $373,957.

In Pasco County (adjacent to the north, with a longer commute) the average price rose 14% from $275,850 to $315,181.

In Pinellas County (St Petersburg and Clearwater), the average price increased 28%, from $390,644 to $490,366.

It’s a great time to buy new construction – interest rates are still low, and there are some builder incentives still out there.